The pharmaceutical industry in the first half of 2016

From January to June 2016, the pharmaceutical industry showed the following characteristics: First, the growth rate of investment in the pharmaceutical industry slightly slowed from the previous month, with an increase rate of 11.7%; Second, the growth rate of the added value of the pharmaceutical industry reached 10.4%, month-on-year and year-on-year. Both have improved; Third, due to the recent state's strict control of medical expenses growth, the main business income and total profit growth of the pharmaceutical industry has slowed down, with year-on-year growth of 10.0% and 13.6%, respectively.

1. Analysis of investment in the pharmaceutical industry

Fixed assets investment

In 2016, global investment risk aversion was serious, and the pharmaceutical industry as a people's livelihood industry was favored by funds. In addition, policies favored frequent and industry investment was good. The pharmaceutical industry as the key development industry in the next five years is in a rising channel compared to other industries in the manufacturing industry, attracting large amounts of capital. Recently, however, the supervision authorities have stepped up the sampling and inspection of business management, production processes, and product quality. Several companies have been penalized for unsatisfactory random inspections, which has affected the production and investment of companies. Therefore, the investment growth rate in June 2016 was relatively low. May slowed. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to June 2016, the pharmaceutical industry completed a total investment of 277.10 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period of last year and a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from January to May 2016; The amount of investment in the pharmaceutical industry accounted for 1.1% of the country's total in the same period, accounting for an increase of 0.1% over the same period last year.

As a key industry supported by the state and an industry that protects the health of the people, the pharmaceutical industry will attract a lot of capital during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. However, as the industry's production standards have become increasingly stringent, the threshold for investment has also increased, and the fixed-asset investment growth rate in the pharmaceutical industry will not rise significantly. However, the pharmaceutical industry is still an important area of ​​asset investment, so investment growth will still rank among the top in the manufacturing industry.

Foreign investment

In 2016, the uncertainty of the world economy increased and the regional security risks increased. The events such as Brexit in the United Kingdom had a great impact on the global investment market, and the risk aversion of funds was strong. In China, the medical industry has a huge market demand, and the pharmaceutical industry has a promising future and attracts many funds. In particular, the pharmaceutical industry has recently been favorably supported by policies, and the degree of openness to private capital has continued to increase, and the attractiveness of foreign capital has continued to increase. The amount of foreign investment has maintained a rapid growth, indicating that the investment environment of foreign investment in China's pharmaceutical industry is good. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June 2016, there were 41 foreign direct investment contract projects in the pharmaceutical industry, an increase of 13.9% over the same period of last year, accounting for 0.3% of the national total, accounting for the same proportion as in the same period of last year; The actual amount of foreign capital used in the industry was USD 1,216.67 million, an increase of 101.2% year-on-year. The growth rate was 4.0 percentage points lower than that of the first five months of 2016, accounting for 1.8% of the national total, accounting for 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

2. Analysis of production conditions in the pharmaceutical industry

From January to June 2016, the enterprises above designated size in China's pharmaceutical industry realized main business income of 1,363.5565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.14%, and total profit of 144.967 billion yuan, an increase of 14.61% over the same period of last year.

Pharmaceutical Industry Growth 10.3%

From January to June 2016, the added value of the pharmaceutical industry above designated size grew by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.4% over the same period of last year, which was 4.3% higher than the overall growth rate of the industry. The added value of the pharmaceutical industry in the overall industry accounted for 3.3%.

Main business income, the fastest growth of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces

From January to June 2016, the enterprises above designated size in the pharmaceutical industry achieved main business income of 1,363.5565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.14%, which was higher than the overall national industrial growth rate of 7.04 percentage points, an increase of 1.23 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among the sub-sectors, the fastest growing revenue from main business is Chinese Herbal Pieces and medical equipment and equipment. The highest proportion of main business revenue was production of chemical raw material medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines, which were 26.31% and 22.37%, respectively.

Total profit increased by 14.61%, negative growth in pharmaceutical equipment

From January to June 2016, the pharmaceutical enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 144.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.61%, which was higher than the national overall industry growth rate of 8.41 percentage points, and an increase of 1.76 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among the sub-industries, the fastest-growing profits were in chemical raw material medicine, medical equipment and equipment, but at the same time, the profits of pharmaceutical equipment showed negative growth. The highest share of profits was in the production of chemical raw material medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines, which were 31.23% and 22.52%, respectively, accounting for over 50% of profits.

Export delivery value increased by 8.03%

From January to June 2016, enterprises above designated size in the pharmaceutical industry achieved export value of 92.955 billion yuan, an increase of 8.03% over the same period of last year, an increase of 4.08 percentage points from the same period of last year.

3. Analysis of the output of major products in the pharmaceutical industry

Chemical drug production

China has a large export share in the production of chemical drugs. The global economy has been sluggish since 2016, and weak market demand has increased downward pressure on the production of chemical drugs. From January to June 2016, due to the low base of the previous year, the year-on-year growth rate of the original drugs of chemical drugs increased, but the monthly growth rate of output of the drugs did not show any obvious improvement. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2016, the production of chemical raw materials was 308,000 tons, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year, and the average daily production was 1,026.76.7 tons. From January to June 2016, the production of chemical drugs was 1.659 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1. %, the increase was 0.6 percentage point lower than that in the first five months of 2016 and 9.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

Chinese medicine production

Since 2016, the state has attached great importance to the development of the Chinese medicine industry and has issued a series of policies to guide the development of the production of traditional Chinese medicine. The favorable policies and market demand have driven the improvement in the production of the Chinese medicine industry. Adding to the low base of the previous year, the growth rate of the output of the Chinese patent medicines has increased significantly. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2016, the production of Chinese patent medicines totaled 332,000 tons, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from May 2016, and the average daily production was 1,1066.7 tons. From January to June 2016, proprietary Chinese medicines were produced. 1.725 million tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from January to May 2016, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% year-on-year.

4. Analysis of import and export of pharmaceutical industry

Import and export situation

As a major exporter of APIs, the year-on-year decline in the growth rate of China's pharmaceutical exports has been narrowed thanks to the recovery of API exports, rising prices, and a slight depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. However, due to the downside risks faced by most economies, the demand of major exporting countries is weak, and the export level of the pharmaceutical industry has fallen sharply compared with the same period of last year. At the same time, as China's medical needs increase and drug development standards increase, the demand for pharmaceutical imports continues to expand. From January to June 2016, the overall import growth rate maintained an upward trend. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that from January to June 2016, the total value of imports and exports in the pharmaceutical industry was 16.69 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points from January to May 2016 and 2.5 from the same period of last year. percentage point. Among them, the export volume was US$6.66 billion, down 2.5% year-on-year, and the decline was flat from January to May 2016, and it was a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; the import volume was US$10.03 billion, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was faster than 20161. - May increased by 0.5 percentage points, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the same period of last year; the trade deficit was 3.38 billion US dollars, an increase of 910 million US dollars from January to May 2016.

In the short term, China's pharmaceutical industry is unlikely to achieve substantial trade growth. However, depending on the status of China's long-standing international pharmaceutical value chain and a number of tending to fixed corporate partnerships, it is expected that China's pharmaceutical foreign trade will maintain low-to-moderate growth. In the medium and long term, China's exports are mainly raw material medicines, low-value consumables and other products. Imports are mainly high-value-added products. In the past, the import and export deficit will further expand. Enterprises need to “go global” and use internationally advantageous resources for my own purposes. Therefore, China's pharmaceutical foreign trade is expected to enter a relatively long period of complexity, and unstable and uncertain factors will increase.

Export delivery value

Since 2016, the export delivery value of China's pharmaceutical products has improved compared with 2015. As the RMB exchange rate gradually stabilizes, the risks faced by the pharmaceutical industry's exports have decreased. However, the growth rate still maintains single-digit growth, which also means that domestic demand is still the main force driving the growth of China's pharmaceutical economy. In June, due to the recovery of exports, the export delivery value of the pharmaceutical industry increased by a month-on-month. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to June 2016, the pharmaceutical industry achieved an export delivery value of 69.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and the growth rate was 0.5 and 5.6 percentage points higher than that in the first five months of 2016 and the same period of the previous year.

5. Analysis of the operation of pharmaceutical companies

In June 2016, with the initiation of drug bidding, the growth rate of the main business income of the pharmaceutical industry has increased. However, due to the introduction of a series of policies to combat ticketing and ticketing in recent years, the tightening of pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical tenders, and the decreasing proportion of drugs, the industry's total profit growth rate has decreased. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2016, the main business income of the pharmaceutical industry was 1,293.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the first five months of 2016 and 1.2 points more than the same period of last year. Percentage points; The pharmaceutical industry realized a total profit of 137.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The growth rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than that in the first five months of 2016 and 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period of last year.

The year 2016 is the first year of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. China’s economy has entered a critical period of adjustment. The reform of the medical and health system has entered the deep-water region, and policies such as medical separation and medical expenses control have put forward more stringent requirements for the pharmaceutical industry from the demand side. The pharmaceutical industry, especially the marketing scale, will be subject to certain restrictions. However, as the "13th Five-Year" key development industry, the pharmaceutical industry is strongly supported by policies and will enter a new era driven by innovation and development. There will be room for further increase in value-added and investment. Taken together, the economic growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry in 2016 will remain at a relatively stable range, with slight fluctuations compared to 2015. Among them, the growth rate of total industrial output value in 2016 is expected to be 11.3%, and the growth rate of income is expected to be 8.7%. The growth rate of investment will maintain over 10%, the growth rate of imports and exports will maintain at around 4%, and the export growth rate will be about 2.5. %.

6. Analysis of the Development Status of the Global Pharmaceutical Market in 2016

The development of the world economy, the growth of the total population and the ageing of the society have led to an upward trend in the demand for drugs. The global pharmaceutical market continues to grow rapidly in recent years. According to IMS, the internationally-recognized medical consultancy, the global pharmaceutical market will grow by 5%-7% to reach US$880 billion in 2010, compared to 4%-5% growth in 2010; 2010-2014 The emerging medicine market is expected to grow at a rate of 14%-17%. China is the world's largest emerging pharmaceutical market. It will become the second largest market in the world after the United States by 2020, and its market share will increase from 3% to 7.5%.

From 2014 to 2018, global pharmaceutical sales will maintain a growth rate of 4% to 7%, reaching approximately US$1.3 trillion by 2018; the markets of developed countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan will continue to dominate the global pharmaceutical consumption; the emerging pharmaceutical market is expected to With an increase of 8% to 11%, it has become the main force driving the growth of global pharmaceutical consumption.

The pharmaceutical sales and share of the emerging pharmaceutical market will continue to grow. By 2016, the sales of pharmaceuticals in these markets will reach about 360 billion US dollars, of which about 65% belong to generic drugs; while annual sales of pharmaceuticals in developed countries will reach about 675 billion US dollars, of which only 18% belong to generic drugs. Globally, the market for branded drugs will be only $630 billion, slightly more than half of the market share, and the rest will be dominated by cheaper generic drugs. With the expiry of the patent protection period of best-selling drugs, consumers in China, Russia, and Brazil are more likely to purchase generic drugs produced by local manufacturers. This is a rare development for local manufacturers in these emerging markets. Opportunity.

At the same time, the emerging countries headed by China will have a growing share of drug consumption in the international pharmaceutical market. This is because the pharmaceutical industry in emerging countries such as China is in a period of rapid development. The government is paying more attention to the medical and health field. The population covered by medical insurance will continue to grow in the future, and new drugs will be offered to patients in order to provide more medication options. The gaps in the pharmaceutical technology of developed countries, led by the United States, are even smaller than those in emerging countries. There are pioneering drugs in most fields, and innovation depends on further breakthroughs in basic biology and basic medicine, and the growth rate of drug expenditure. Will slow down.

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